Bitcoin outlook
Tomorrow
Base rate: 52%
Market-implied (Polymarket): 54%
54%
experimental estimate of a higher close
Narrative: The experimental signal mix is upward; the largest contributions are from dvol, vix. Coverage is 100%.
Show signal details
| Metric | Value | Signal | Weight | Contribution | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14d) | 71.437 | -0.07 | 15% | -0.011 | RSI 71.4 ≥ 70 — overbought |
| Fear Greed | 69 | +0.00 | 12% | +0.000 | Fear & Greed neutral |
| Bollinger Pctb | 0.753 | +0.00 | 10% | +0.000 | %B inside the bands |
| Funding Rate | 0 | +0.00 | 10% | +0.000 | Funding moderate |
| Ret Zscore 30D | -0.05 | +0.00 | 10% | +0.000 | Return z-score normal |
| Stochastic RSI (14d) | 0.795 | +0.00 | 10% | +0.000 | Stoch RSI mid-range |
| DVOL | 36.87 | +1.00 | 8% | +0.080 | DVOL 37 < 45 — volatility subdued |
| Long Short Ratio | 1.188 | +0.00 | 8% | +0.000 | Long/short balance normal |
| Basis | -0 | +0.00 | 7% | +0.000 | Basis normal |
| Days To Fomc | 17 | +0.00 | 5% | +0.000 | FOMC meeting far away |
| VIX | 14.43 | +0.30 | 5% | +0.015 | VIX 14.4 < 15 — markets calm |
| Cycle Phase | 0.59 | +0.30 | 0% | +0.000 | Cycle phase 0.59 — second half |
| Drawdown 365D High | -0.373 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Drawdown from the yearly high moderate |
| Epu Daily | 96.6 | +0.03 | 0% | +0.000 | EPU 97 < 100 — policy calm |
| Ma50 Ratio | 1.167 | +1.00 | 0% | +0.000 | MA50: price above the average |
| Mayer Multiple | 1.129 | +0.26 | 0% | +0.000 | Price above SMA200 — bullish regime |
| MVRV Z-score | -0.126 | +1.00 | 0% | +0.000 | MVRV Z -0.13 < 0 — historically undervalued |
| Oi Change 7D | 0.009 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | OI change normal |
| Puell Multiple | 0.974 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Puell in the normal range |
| Ret 30D | 0.208 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Monthly return normal |
| Sma20W Ratio | 1.126 | +1.00 | 0% | +0.000 | SMA20W: price above the average |
| Stablecoin Supply Chg 30D | 0.014 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Stablecoin flow flat |
| Yield Curve | 0.47 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Curve slope neutral |
30 days
Base rate: 58%
Market-implied (Deribit options): 48%
63%
experimental estimate of a higher close
Narrative: The experimental signal mix is upward; the largest contributions are from sma20w ratio, mayer multiple. Coverage is 85%.
Show signal details
| Metric | Value | Signal | Weight | Contribution | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayer Multiple | 1.129 | +0.26 | 15% | +0.039 | Price above SMA200 — bullish regime |
| Stablecoin Supply Chg 30D | 0.014 | +0.00 | 15% | +0.000 | Stablecoin flow flat |
| Cycle Phase | 0.59 | +0.30 | 11% | +0.034 | Cycle phase 0.59 — second half |
| Sma20W Ratio | 1.126 | +1.00 | 11% | +0.113 | SMA20W: price above the average |
| Drawdown 365D High | -0.373 | +0.00 | 10% | +0.000 | Drawdown from the yearly high moderate |
| VIX | 14.43 | +0.30 | 10% | +0.030 | VIX 14.4 < 15 — markets calm |
| Epu Daily | 96.6 | +0.03 | 5% | +0.002 | EPU 97 < 100 — policy calm |
| Yield Curve | 0.47 | +0.00 | 5% | +0.000 | Curve slope neutral |
| Ret 30D | 0.208 | +0.00 | 2% | +0.000 | Monthly return normal |
| Basis | -0 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Basis normal |
| Bollinger Pctb | 0.753 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | %B inside the bands |
| Days To Fomc | 17 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | FOMC meeting far away |
| DVOL | 36.87 | +1.00 | 0% | +0.000 | DVOL 37 < 45 — volatility subdued |
| Fear Greed | 69 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Fear & Greed neutral |
| Funding Rate | 0 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Funding moderate |
| Long Short Ratio | 1.188 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Long/short balance normal |
| Ma50 Ratio | 1.167 | +1.00 | 0% | +0.000 | MA50: price above the average |
| MVRV Z-score | -0.126 | +1.00 | 0% | +0.000 | MVRV Z -0.13 < 0 — historically undervalued |
| Oi Change 7D | 0.009 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | OI change normal |
| Puell Multiple | 0.974 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Puell in the normal range |
| Ret Zscore 30D | -0.05 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Return z-score normal |
| RSI (14d) | 71.437 | -0.07 | 0% | -0.000 | RSI 71.4 ≥ 70 — overbought |
| Stochastic RSI (14d) | 0.795 | +0.00 | 0% | +0.000 | Stoch RSI mid-range |
Latest metrics
Trend
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ma50 Ratio | Price / SMA50. | 1.167 | ▲ | ▲ | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Mayer Multiple | Price / SMA200 (classic Mayer multiple). | 1.129 | ▲ | ▲ | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Price Close | Daily UTC close price (CoinGecko daily); stamped on the day whose close it is. | $78,225.14 | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Ret 1D | One-day return from the price_close series. | 0.52% | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Ret 30D | 30-day return from the price_close series. | 20.82% | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Ret 7D | 7-day return from the price_close series. | 1.48% | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Sma20W Ratio | Price / SMA140 (20-week moving average). | 1.126 | ▲ | ▲ | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Volume 24H | Daily trading volume (CoinGecko total_volumes). | $14.49B | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
Overbought / oversold
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger Pctb | Position of price inside Bollinger bands (20d, k=2), %B. | 0.753 | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Drawdown 365D High | Drawdown from the one-year price high. | -37.29% | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Realized Vol 30D | Annualised volatility of daily log returns over 30 days. | 43.28% | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Ret Zscore 30D | Z-score of the latest daily log return against 30 days. | -0.05 | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| RSI (14d) | Wilder RSI over 14 days. | 71.4 | ▼ | ▼ | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Stochastic RSI (14d) | Stochastic of RSI14 over a 14-day window. | 0.795 | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
On-chain
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Addresses | Daily active addresses (CoinMetrics AdrActCnt). | 567,148 | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Hashrate | Network hash rate (CoinMetrics HashRate). | 913069940.686 | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Market Cap | Market capitalisation (CoinMetrics CapMrktCurUSD). | $1570.90B | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Miners Revenue Usd | Daily miner revenue in USD (blockchain.info). | $38.62M | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| MVRV | MVRV: market cap / realised cap (CoinMetrics). | 1.475 | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| MVRV Z-score | Z-score of MVRV against its 365-day history. | -0.126 | ▲ | ▲ | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Puell Multiple | Miner revenue / its 365-day SMA (Puell multiple). | 0.974 | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Tx Count | Daily transaction count (CoinMetrics TxCnt). | 737,931 | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
Derivatives
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basis | Basis: (mark − index) / index. | -0.04% | — | — | 30 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC | |
| DVOL | BTC implied volatility index (Deribit DVOL). | 36.9% | ▲ | ▲ | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Funding Rate | BTCUSDT funding rate (premiumIndex.lastFundingRate). | 0.01% | — | — | 30 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC | |
| Long Short Ratio | Global long/short account ratio (Binance 1d). | 1.188 | — | — | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Oi Change 7D | Open-interest change over the last 7 points of the series. | 0.88% | — | — | 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC | |
| Open Interest | BTCUSDT open interest (openInterest). | 108063.352 | 30 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC |
Sentiment & flows
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Btc Dominance | BTC share of total crypto market cap (CoinGecko global). | 59.5% | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Fear Greed | Crypto Fear & Greed index (alternative.me). | 69.0 | — | — | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Stablecoin Supply | Total USD stablecoin supply (DeFiLlama circulating.peggedUSD). | $310.69B | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Stablecoin Supply Chg 30D | 30-day change in stablecoin supply. | 0.017 | — | — | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
Macro
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days To Fomc | Days until the next FOMC meeting (calendar constants). | 17 | — | — | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| US Dollar Index | US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS). | 118.063 | 21 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Fedfunds | Effective federal funds rate (FRED DFF). | 3.6% | 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Gold Btc Ratio | Gold (PAXG) / BTC price on the same day. | 0.057 | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Gold Usd | Gold via PAXG (CoinGecko simple price). | $4,462.05 | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Hy Spread | High-yield credit spread (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) — risk appetite. | 2.6% | 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| M2 | Weekly M2 money supply (FRED WM2NS). | $23,207.70 | 03 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| Real Yield 10Y | 10-year TIPS real yield (FRED DFII10). | 2.3% | 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| S&P 500 | S&P 500 index (FRED SP500). | 7711.76 | 28 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| US 10Y yield | 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). | 4.7% | 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| US 2Y yield | 2-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS2). | 4.2% | 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |||
| VIX | S&P 500 volatility index (CBOE CSV). | 14.43 | ▲ | ▲ | 28 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Yield Curve | Curve slope: us10y − us2y. | 0.5% | — | — | — | 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
Geopolitics
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epu Daily | US Economic Policy Uncertainty index (daily CSV). | 96.6 | ▲ | ▲ | 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
Cycle
| Metric | Description | Value | Day | Month | 90-day trend | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle Phase | Position in the 4-year cycle (days/1460, 0..1). | 0.59 | ▲ | ▲ | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC | |
| Days Since Halving | Days since the last halving (date constants). | 862 | 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC |
Track record
| Horizon | Method | Window | Forecasts | Hit rate | 95% CI | Always-up baseline | Brier | Independent samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomorrow | Model | 30d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Tomorrow | Model | 90d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Tomorrow | Model | 365d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Tomorrow | Market-implied (Polymarket) | 30d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Tomorrow | Market-implied (Polymarket) | 90d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Tomorrow | Market-implied (Polymarket) | 365d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 days | Model | 30d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 days | Model | 90d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 days | Model | 365d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 days | Market-implied (Deribit options) | 30d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 days | Market-implied (Deribit options) | 90d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 days | Market-implied (Deribit options) | 365d | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Indicator track record
No resolved forecasts yet — indicator statistics appear after the first outcomes.